Analysis of trend for road fuel sales in the UK from 2020 to 2023

Fuel consumption in the United Kingdom is a key factor in energy demand which makes it highly demanded all over the country. This study aims to analyse the trend of road fuel sales and stock levels in the UK from 2020 to 2023.

In this project, six stages of the Data Analytical Lifecycle were used.

1. Discover

This dataset was collected from the government of the UK website (link) and consists of different attributes which are date, weekday, fuel type, region, average sales per filling station (litres), average deliveries per filling station (litres), and average stock level per filling station (%).

2. Data Preparation

The dataset was prepared in PowerBI as no missing values were retrieved, and no transformation of variables was needed.

3. Plan Model

In dealing with time series data, Power BI provided a built-in forecasting model which helped in predicting future sales of fuel consumption as will be shown below in the key findings. In Power BI, through a line chart, I selected two variables which are ‘date’ and ‘average sales per filling station (litres)’.

4. Build Model

Before applying the forecasting, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) will be used to check if there is stationarity or non-stationarity in the dataset. In addition, PowerBI will help visualize and communicate the results to the stakeholders.

5. Communicate results

All the key findings will be visualised in Power BI and the dashboard will be presented in this article. In addition, every chart is to be explained independently according to its meaning or interpretation.

6. Operationalise

In the last stage of the Data analytics lifecycle, I will recommend the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero on what they can do according to the key findings and recommend other researchers on the other models that can be used.

Data Visualisation by PowerBI

This dashboard presents a comprehensive analysis of road fuel sales, deliveries, and stock levels at filling stations across the UK. It highlights an average of 9.61K litres in both sales and deliveries per station, with an average stock level of 44%. The trends from 2020 to 2023 show variations in sales and stock levels for diesel and petrol, with a notable increase in sales around 2021. Regional analysis reveals that the East and South East regions have the highest sales, while daily analysis shows peak sales on Fridays and Thursdays. Overall, the data indicates consistent fuel delivery and stock management with clear trends in consumer behavior and regional distribution.

Forecasting of road fuel consumption

This chart illustrates the average fuel sales per filling station in the UK from 2020 to early 2024. The sales dropped sharply in early 2020, likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, then gradually recovered and stabilized through 2021 and 2022. The trend remains relatively steady into 2023, with a slight decline towards the end of the year. The forecast for 2024 shows a modest increase in sales, indicating a potential recovery or growth phase. The shaded area represents the forecast uncertainty, suggesting varying levels of confidence in the projected sales figures.

Note: This is the link provided to view my Power BI dashboard indicating the United Kingdom road fuel sales trend and forecasting built in the Power BI.

Next step

If you find any mistake or potential improvement, contact me at mpanocedric@gmail.com.